Farmers in the Kawarthas may have reason to be optimistic about the future impacts of climate change, because scientific models suggest a possible increase in crop yields. But for other people who live in the region, climate change could mean adapting to more precipitation, changes in nature’s cycles, and an escalation of extreme weather events.

Those were some of the predictions discussed at “Climate Change in My Backyard,” a town hall meeting held at Peterborough’s Market Hall on Tuesday, March 25, 2014. The public session was presented by Trent University graduate students and the Ontario Climate Consortium.

Dr. Raul Ponce-Hernandez, an associate professor in the Environmental and Resource Studies/Science and Geography programs at Trent University, explained that the purpose of the meeting was to kick off the process of transferring information from scientists to the community at large.

“Facing the unprecedented challenge of climate change will require adaptive management, and that can only happen when we have intense social learning, with all levels of society participating in the process,” said Professor Ponce-Hernandez. “This town hall session is the starting point for bridging the gap between science and the public. Hopefully, this dialogue will eventually translate into policies.”

The town hall meeting featured a panel of experts who shared information on the current and future impacts of climate change, with a focus on the Kawarthas. Dr. Gregory Flato, chief scientist and manager of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis at Environment Canada was the main speaker for the event. He was joined by Prof. Ponce-Hernandez and by Drew Monkman, a local naturalist and author. Members of the audience participated by sharing stories and asking questions of the panel.

Dr. Flato, who is a member of the Intergovernmental Panel of the Convention of Climate Change, shared highlights from the Panel’s most recent assessment report. The scientific evidence, he pointed out, indicates that global warming is due to carbon emissions, and the future models point to widespread and consistent climate change. “Human influence on the climate system is virtually certain,” Dr. Flato said.

Mr. Monkman brought the climate change story closer to home with examples of changes to local flora and fauna. These included in the numbers and kinds of species, as well as shifts in the dates of cyclical events. “For those of us who pay attention to nature, there has been a change in how it feels to live in the Kawarthas,” he said.

The future impacts on the local agricultural sector were discussed by Prof. Ponce-Hernandez. He presented scientific models for Peterborough and the Kawarthas that showed a rise in temperature and precipitation, as well as a potential increase in corn and soybean yields. But he cautioned that the there is also a danger of extreme weather events which could impact the yields and hurt the local economy.

The next sessions in the series will look at the local impacts of climate change in specific sectors such as agriculture and urban infrastructure.

Posted on Friday, March 28, 2014.