This story is featured in the Fall 2013 issue of Showcase: The Knowledge Mobilization Edition. View the complete publication at www.trentu.ca/showcase

Dr. Raul Ponce-Hernandez is preoccupied with the transfer of knowledge. “There is a huge information gap between what scientists know, and what the public and policy-makers know, regarding the impacts of climate change,” says the professor of Environmental and Resource Studies and Geography. As a member of a working group of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Professor Ponce- Hernandez has viewed climate change scenarios, some of which he describes as dire. “Although there is a band of uncertainty to these scenarios, and they may be unpleasant and scary for some, it’s important that people know about these things so we can figure out how to adapt to the changes that will occur.”

That’s why Prof. Ponce-Hernandez is excited about the prototype online tool he and his students have developed for mapping climate change impacts on agriculture in Ontario. It represents a useful example of how scientific knowledge can be made available to practitioners to help them understand the impacts of climate change and to help them make appropriate policy decisions.

The Climate Change Mapper takes sophisticated calculations from general circulation models of the atmosphere and down scales them to one kilometer square areas along with local estimates of rainfall, evaporation, and temperature. Using crop growth models, it maps out crop growth and crop yields, to predict how they will be affected by future changes in the climate. The tool allows the user to choose from different climate change scenarios – benign, medium, and severe – to view a range of possible outcomes, along with a level of probability.

Online Tool to Empower Everyone from Farmers to Agencies

Prof. Ponce-Hernandez says governments and industries are very receptive to the tool, citing the positive response he received for his presentation at a recent symposium of the Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC). He sees the OCC, which brings together research scientists and government agencies, as an ideal platform for promoting the Climate Change Mapper. “The purpose of OCC is to link science, policy and community, and serve as an umbrella under which we can transfer knowledge,” he says.

“Eventually, the tool will be online and available to everyone, from farmers to agencies, who want to check the agricultural impacts of climate change. It’s important to demystify the complexity of general circulation models, as part of the knowledge transfer process.”

Although the Climate Change Mapper is currently focused on agriculture, Prof. Ponce-Hernandez points out that it can be adapted for other research at Trent. “The procedures for generating and downscaling spatial-explicit data can be used in different models, such as one that shows where water will go, accumulate and create floods.” He cites the example of an incoming grad student, whose thesis will focus on developing flood risk scenarios for the Central Lake Ontario Conservation Authority.

Info Transfer through Townhall Meetings on Climate Change

Prof. Ponce-Hernandez hopes to start the process of information transfer to public audiences by organizing, with the support of the OCC, a series of local and regional “town hall” public information meetings on climate change, with the first scheduled for January 2014. He expects to be able to present the prototype Climate Change Mapper at that time. “We need to first close the gap between what science and what stakeholders know. Then we need to transfer knowledge to the public. This is where we have been lagging behind. We know these climate change events are occurring, but how do you make them visible and accessible so anyone can look at these scenarios?”

The Climate Change Mapper can be viewed at http://www.clic-on-agric.info/simulations.htm   

Posted on Tuesday, December 10, 2013.