While the prospect of warmer winters might seem attractive to many Canadians, the consequences of global change for wildlife may not be so favourable. Indeed, there is increasing concern that climate change might lead to the demise of much of our northern wildlife. One species of particular concern is caribou.

Prior to the arrival of Europeans to this continent, caribou had one of the widest distributions of any mammal in Canada. Barren-ground caribou roamed the continental tundra; shy and secretive woodland caribou were scattered throughout the coniferous forests; and smaller Peary caribou inhabited the islands of the High Arctic. As late as 1880, woodland caribou could be found as far south as Georgian Bay and the Ottawa Valley.

Today, many caribou populations are in trouble. In Labrador, woodland caribou numbers have declined by three-quarters in less than 10 years. In Alberta, they are classified as vulnerable; in the Gaspé, Peninsula as endangered. In Ontario, with our continual encroachment into the boreal forest, an immense area of historic caribou range -- seven times the size of Nova Scotia -- is now devoid of caribou.

Global warming is expected to exacerbate these circumstances. Models of climate change predict an increase in forest fire frequency, circumstances which makes habitat unsuitable for woodland caribou. Once a forest is burned, the principal food for caribou, lichens or "caribou moss", require as long as a century to recover. Any food that remains is harder to access. Snow becomes deeper and harder, and downed trees impede the ability of caribou to move.

In the Far North, the situation is more precarious. Peary caribou, a uniquely Canadian subspecies, rests on the very brink of extinction. Their total numbers - some 25,000 animals in 1961 -- may now be as low as 2,000. Their collapse appears have an environmental origin, a series of winters of unfavourable snow and ice.

For Peary caribou, freezing rain is the ecological equivalent of the Montreal ice storm. Ice cover represents an impenetrable barrier; it can lock up food plants and lead to starvation and decimation of the population. In the Arctic, climate change is expected to be accompanied by increased snow fall, rising temperatures, and more frequent icing events. The forecast is not favourable.

To most Canadians, caribou might be most familiar as the image on a 25¢ piece, but our historic connection with caribou -- the source of meat, hides, and celebration for millennia -- suggests a deeper relationship.

Today, many northerners retain those intense cultural links. The fate of many other wildlife species - wolves, foxes, ravens, bears, wolverines - is also intimately tied to caribou. The consequences of caribou disappearing from our land are social, as well as ecological.

James Schaefer is Assistant Professor in the Department of Biology at Trent University.