Ready or not -
they will want to come!

by Bonnie Patterson
President and Vice-Chancellor

I held a news conference earlier this month to explain the impact on Trent of the so-called "double cohort" enrolment rush, part of almost 40-per-cent-more students expected at Ontario universities in the next decade. There was some wonder at our concern among members of the local media, aware that enrolment has not been at a maximum during the past few years. Why, then, should extra students concern Trent?

With statistical assistance provided by Professor Torben Drewes, I was able to illustrate that the increased student numbers wouldn't just fill the university's classes, but would spill out over our capacity and put extreme stress on already worn infrastructure. For Trent alone, we will need approximately $18-million in additional provincial funding if we are to provide for our relative share of access required. At minimum, this new investment would provide the same level of support offered to students who are currently enrolled. In 2002-2003 we'll see the first effects of this pressure on university applications due to demographic growth, increased desire for advanced degrees demanded in the new knowledge economy, and secondary school reforms that will eliminate the fifth year of high school.

How do we arrive at Trent's stated need? We know from recent enrolment realities that we can handle an additional 100 full-time students immediately. We must get ourselves to that position as quickly as possible as a financial imperative. A review of Trent's capacity reveals that within current physical plant, 500 additional full-time students can be accommodated without new construction. But, we would require $10-million of deferred maintenance and upgrading to teaching areas. For example, the Science Complex needs renewal even if current enrolment levels are to be maintained. To cope with this larger influx of students will require upgraded seating and classroom technology, air conditioning to accommodate a full-time summer session, modifications to some existing space and to any leased space that might be used to deal with this volume of student intake.

Assuming Trent attracts its relative share of student interest in its programs, however even with these changes, Trent's maximum physical enrolment capacity will be reached by 2003-04 as both demographic increases and the double cohort impact are felt. Although the surge in numbers related to secondary school reform will eventually disappear, longer term demographic and participation rate effects are projected to keep enrolment demands above our capacity and at the peak level forecasted in the province of an additional 89,000 students.

On the teaching side, by the year 2010, the steady state point in the forecast, 84 of our full-time faculty will have retired. To maintain current ratio of faculty to students, the full-time faculty complement will have to be increased by 75. By 2010, to accommodate growth, Trent will have to hire almost 160 new full-time faculty just to maintain current student-faculty ratios.

Trent's teaching and research mission is currently supported by 260 full-time equivalent positions. To maintain the current ratio of students to support staff will require a net addition of 100 full-time staff. Non-staff expenses, such as scholarship and bursary support, will also be driven up as enrolment surges.

The Trent news conference followed on the heels of one held by the Council of Ontario Universities (COU) which described the demands that student growth will exert on all 17 provincial universities.

COU commissioned a March 1999 study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, under the leadership of Michael Gourley, former Deputy Minister of Finance, which estimates an increase of 38.6 per cent in the number of students wanting to enrol in universities by 2010.

In addition, the COU shared results of an Angus Reid Group, Inc. public opinion and expectations poll of 1,000 Ontario residents. The latter work indicated the public continues to be generally unaware that the funding per person to Ontario universities is the lowest of any province, and, after being informed of this situation, that 88 per cent thought that it should become a government priority. There was also consensus that all qualified students should be able to attend university, and that universities are seen as offering their graduates more career growth and earning potential than colleges and trade schools.

We at Trent, and at all Ontario universities, must be prepared to respond to this "double cohort" and demographic demand. Increased understanding of the situation and public opinion is only just the beginning.